Grexit Strategic Risks Trump Economic Ones

With Greece comprising just two percent of the European Union’s economy, one might wonder why policymakers are so troubled by the prospects of a Greek exit. The simple answer is that strategic risks greatly outweigh economic and financial ones.

On the economic front, EU countries are not overly reliant on the Greek market for their exports, so the economic loss would be marginal. Additionally, European banks are more insulated from a Greek default than they were in 2010, as most of the debt is held by foreign governments, the ECB and IMF. Financial contagion would be averted.

The strategic risks, however, may be pronounced. First, entry into the euro zone was considered permanent and inviolable. Smashing through this assumption would set a terrible precedent by┬árupturing this principle of inviolability. Fears that other highly indebted nations such as Portugal and Spain could exit during a future crisis would no longer seem irrational. This could adversely impact the euro’s strength and usage as an international currency.

But the more acute worry is strategic. A Grexit could damage the EU and NATO since Greece would remain a member of both. Having a disgruntled, resentful, economic basket case within the EU would prove cancerous, as it would inflame political divisions already present within the 28 nation bloc. An imploding and resentful Greece would also be susceptible to Russian influence, likely hindering NATO’s ability to act and threatening its unity. These strategic issues cannot be underestimated and make a Grexit truly worrisome.

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